Russia has repeatedly tested NATO's resolve with drone flights over Poland, fighter jet incursions into Estonian airspace, and surveillance activities in the Baltic Sea, including the most recent incident - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/21/german-jets-scrambled-after-russian-military-plane-flies-over-baltic-sea

NATO's recent consultations under Article 4 show that these provocations are no longer being treated as routine incidents. Estonia has even raised the issue at the UN Security Council.

The central question is how Europe should respond. Some argue that Russian aircraft violating NATO airspace should, if necessary, be shot down. This would not be an act of escalation, but a defensive measure, similar to Turkey's downing of a Russian jet in 2015, which effectively deterred further incursions into its territory.

The risk today, however, is higher. With the war in Ukraine ongoing and US foreign policy shifting under Trump, Europe cannot rely on America to manage the crisis. Russia is probing NATO to see how far it can push without facing real consequences.

Europe needs both deterrence and diplomacy. Re-armament programs are a step toward self-defense, but they must be matched by serious diplomatic initiatives to prevent escalation. Without this balance, the cycle of provocation and retaliation could spiral into open conflict (which might not go well, by the way) - https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/nato-would-lose-a-war-against-russia

As the BBC noted in its coverage of NATO airspace violations, Moscow's actions are deliberate tests of Western resolve - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg921rjrko
Europe must show that its borders are not negotiable, while also keeping channels open to avoid sliding into a war no one wants.